indyanguy
11-09 05:51 PM
bump
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ab_tak_chappan
08-14 08:54 PM
gave a green to chaanakya
RandyK
11-05 10:49 PM
Like I said, I did not catch the whole speech, but from what I heard, he was not talking completely against it, he mentioned that businesses need more H1B's and should be able to hire foreign talent.
He was mainly against abuse by big consulting firms (he gave out a statistic that 20K of the H1B went for 8 or 9 of the top consulting firms or something like that).
At least there is something happening..... we have only two weeks....... this may be our only chance this year to attach anything EB
He was mainly against abuse by big consulting firms (he gave out a statistic that 20K of the H1B went for 8 or 9 of the top consulting firms or something like that).
At least there is something happening..... we have only two weeks....... this may be our only chance this year to attach anything EB
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chanduv23
03-20 02:19 PM
Probably his employer is finding excuses not to file his GC and like his employees on H1B.
Dude, whatever it is, get out of that hole if you cant get GC filed.
1. Line up another job.
2. Go there or else, tell your employer, that "Find a way to file my GC, otherwise HASTALA VISTA baybee...".
3. Choose your option.
I was in similar situation. My previous company was merged into a new company, and I got screwed big time on wage issues.
Yeah, I learnt everything the hard way.
But for people out there, if you have a choice, utilize it. Don't give into exploitation
Dude, whatever it is, get out of that hole if you cant get GC filed.
1. Line up another job.
2. Go there or else, tell your employer, that "Find a way to file my GC, otherwise HASTALA VISTA baybee...".
3. Choose your option.
I was in similar situation. My previous company was merged into a new company, and I got screwed big time on wage issues.
Yeah, I learnt everything the hard way.
But for people out there, if you have a choice, utilize it. Don't give into exploitation
more...
abd
04-07 01:36 PM
I am settng up tea stall at Asian Festival(just for fun) , i will give all my profit to IV. Approx. 20,000 people visit the festival so i should be able to make atleast $200-300 profit with my tea stall.
Also, i am sending my $100 contibution by money order
Also, i am sending my $100 contibution by money order
dpp
06-13 10:31 AM
Nice post, containing real facts.
You are purely thinking about your perspective and neglecting the purpose of GC for the country.
To qualify in EB1/Eb2/EB3 depends on some factors:
EB1: Extra ordinary candidate, may or may not be represented by employer
EB2: Senior Level: Job duties have to justify need for advance degree candidate (or BS + 5yrs exp) and then candidate must qualify too
EB3: 16 years of education (ideally) with degree in related field (lets talk IT for now)
Now current status and its cause:
EB1: - No jumping, no gaming system : Hence NO DELAYS
EB2: - Good chunk with genuine apps, some gaming system where applicant qualify but not the job, some gaming system and taking very high risk by showing BS +5 yrs (they actually don't have +5 factor), other jumping the category (legally :D) but taking very high risk for RFE
Result: Got retrogressed
EB3: Good chunk with genuine apps, some unfortunate ppl who do qualify but job doesn't support experience or higher pay, lot of gaming system with BS (3yr) in non Computer/IT and showing 1yr certifications etc, and everybody who does not qualify for EB1/EB2, lot of nurses (I heard someone said nurses in back)
Result: Severely retrogressed with no hopes in horizon
Now lets look at market demand ( we know supply of apps is pretty darn good)
EB 1: Very very high : general pay range starts from $250k+ and goes up to $400k for fresher (PHDs) and in upper $150k for Int'l Managers
EB 2:: High, general pay starts high $80k and goes somewhere $140k+,
EB 3:: good, starts from upper $40k and goes somewhere $65-70k, (lots of job and lots of applicant)
Now lets take a look at Supply of Apps (Assumption 1M apps already in system):
EB1: say 50K (5%) - (fast processing - Express lane)
EB2: may be 200K (20%) - (sounds good on paper but in realty slow but moving)
EB3: everything else (75%) (OMG :eek: stampede : frustration with no visible progress)
Now lets checkout preference:
Preference from perspective of country, what benefits country the most:
EB1: ohh : lets get them in ASAP
EB2: yes yes we welcome you please come in (after some long wait)
EB3: OMG its flood of ppl, use extra strong flood gate and keep them out as long as possible, and let them in with very low rate
Now This:
Like everything in the world, the fewer the qty the hotter the product,
the abundance kills the market, applies perfectly with EB2, in 2000-2001 it used to take 12-24 months and you have GC in hand, and now .. may be by my kids turns 16yrs, and EB3: 2000-2001 use to take about 3 yrs and but right then we started getting flood, and thanks to 200K H1bs in 2001-2.
End of the day EB1/EB2/EB3 all are immigrant and are victim of broken system (I�m sure EB1 disagree here with me because they enjoy express lanes), it need fix but is it high priority for law makers or we just think it is?
how desperate we are to provide help? or we are just good at reading/writing here and using IV and other forums for venting out? ask yourself
The list goes on and my analysis goes on, but these are just my thoughts thinking out loud,
and trying to think for a solution.... Next thought -> Solution, I will post in coming days
You are purely thinking about your perspective and neglecting the purpose of GC for the country.
To qualify in EB1/Eb2/EB3 depends on some factors:
EB1: Extra ordinary candidate, may or may not be represented by employer
EB2: Senior Level: Job duties have to justify need for advance degree candidate (or BS + 5yrs exp) and then candidate must qualify too
EB3: 16 years of education (ideally) with degree in related field (lets talk IT for now)
Now current status and its cause:
EB1: - No jumping, no gaming system : Hence NO DELAYS
EB2: - Good chunk with genuine apps, some gaming system where applicant qualify but not the job, some gaming system and taking very high risk by showing BS +5 yrs (they actually don't have +5 factor), other jumping the category (legally :D) but taking very high risk for RFE
Result: Got retrogressed
EB3: Good chunk with genuine apps, some unfortunate ppl who do qualify but job doesn't support experience or higher pay, lot of gaming system with BS (3yr) in non Computer/IT and showing 1yr certifications etc, and everybody who does not qualify for EB1/EB2, lot of nurses (I heard someone said nurses in back)
Result: Severely retrogressed with no hopes in horizon
Now lets look at market demand ( we know supply of apps is pretty darn good)
EB 1: Very very high : general pay range starts from $250k+ and goes up to $400k for fresher (PHDs) and in upper $150k for Int'l Managers
EB 2:: High, general pay starts high $80k and goes somewhere $140k+,
EB 3:: good, starts from upper $40k and goes somewhere $65-70k, (lots of job and lots of applicant)
Now lets take a look at Supply of Apps (Assumption 1M apps already in system):
EB1: say 50K (5%) - (fast processing - Express lane)
EB2: may be 200K (20%) - (sounds good on paper but in realty slow but moving)
EB3: everything else (75%) (OMG :eek: stampede : frustration with no visible progress)
Now lets checkout preference:
Preference from perspective of country, what benefits country the most:
EB1: ohh : lets get them in ASAP
EB2: yes yes we welcome you please come in (after some long wait)
EB3: OMG its flood of ppl, use extra strong flood gate and keep them out as long as possible, and let them in with very low rate
Now This:
Like everything in the world, the fewer the qty the hotter the product,
the abundance kills the market, applies perfectly with EB2, in 2000-2001 it used to take 12-24 months and you have GC in hand, and now .. may be by my kids turns 16yrs, and EB3: 2000-2001 use to take about 3 yrs and but right then we started getting flood, and thanks to 200K H1bs in 2001-2.
End of the day EB1/EB2/EB3 all are immigrant and are victim of broken system (I�m sure EB1 disagree here with me because they enjoy express lanes), it need fix but is it high priority for law makers or we just think it is?
how desperate we are to provide help? or we are just good at reading/writing here and using IV and other forums for venting out? ask yourself
The list goes on and my analysis goes on, but these are just my thoughts thinking out loud,
and trying to think for a solution.... Next thought -> Solution, I will post in coming days
more...
GCVivek
04-19 06:44 PM
It is simple: you could have a PhD and be on H1B but still not qualify for EB2 classification if the job you are in does not require enough education and/or experience to fall under EB2 classification.
You do NOT require Master's degree for EB2 classification or for H1B. The law does require "related field" but does not clearly specify computer science or anything.
You do require enough experience.
When applying for GC or during the stages, Educational Equivalency to US accredited Universities will have to be shown. This is the stage you might have an issue with showing that it is equivalent.
There have been thousands of instances where applicants have been disqualified from applying for GC and even their H1B revoked when initial degree was found to not be related to the occupation - examples: B.Com, B.Sc (Bio, Geology..except Physics/Math), B.Arch.
USCIS is now very strict. :( -but for the betterment of the whole system.
Hey,
I have Bachelor's computer's 3 years and MCA 2 years from IGNOU. I have over 7 years of Exp excluding frm my current company. Is EB2 possible in my case. My employer says its not cause of my education, can anybody let me know if they have done EB2 with this scenario. Appreciate your time. Thanks
You do NOT require Master's degree for EB2 classification or for H1B. The law does require "related field" but does not clearly specify computer science or anything.
You do require enough experience.
When applying for GC or during the stages, Educational Equivalency to US accredited Universities will have to be shown. This is the stage you might have an issue with showing that it is equivalent.
There have been thousands of instances where applicants have been disqualified from applying for GC and even their H1B revoked when initial degree was found to not be related to the occupation - examples: B.Com, B.Sc (Bio, Geology..except Physics/Math), B.Arch.
USCIS is now very strict. :( -but for the betterment of the whole system.
Hey,
I have Bachelor's computer's 3 years and MCA 2 years from IGNOU. I have over 7 years of Exp excluding frm my current company. Is EB2 possible in my case. My employer says its not cause of my education, can anybody let me know if they have done EB2 with this scenario. Appreciate your time. Thanks
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wawa
10-01 01:45 PM
Another intresting update...
I just checked the USCIS website and found out that the approved H1 which has been reopened has a Last Updated date of 09/30/2007....
09/30/2007 was a Sunday...why is USCIS working on the case on Sunday ???
I have the same update on 09/30/2007......
I just checked the USCIS website and found out that the approved H1 which has been reopened has a Last Updated date of 09/30/2007....
09/30/2007 was a Sunday...why is USCIS working on the case on Sunday ???
I have the same update on 09/30/2007......
more...
CADude
07-19 06:19 PM
immigrationportal has reported only 2 cases of rejection for july 2nd filer. Their package returned back and received by party(around july 10th), per forum there.
Viral,
There is not much we can do. From Greg's yesterday's latest response that there were very few which were returned/rejected on July 2nd itself and this thread proves that we are not alone ...there are so many and status is unknown. Matthew Oh is also suggesting that it will be receipted. I think we are all safe and with time we will get receipt. Nobody...none of the attorney's are suggesting refiling. Now the thought that whether my packet was properly filed or not? I think that will always be there in the back of one's mind but if the attorney has done his/her job correctly I think we should not worry. Its not rocket science and documents required for filing are well known...so I would discount this risk. It appears we are all safe because as we all know that no rejection notices have been generated, packets if returned should have come back by now as per Greg....All in all it all points towards our packets being on hold there at respective centers....but as you rightly pointed out..towards the last week of July keep calling centers to know..but even before that keep eye on check clearing as that by far is the best and earliest clue that all is well with the case.
Stay tuned and I will keep on updating here on this nice thread that you created...i really appreciate it. Keep up the good work buddy!!
Best Regards,
Viral,
There is not much we can do. From Greg's yesterday's latest response that there were very few which were returned/rejected on July 2nd itself and this thread proves that we are not alone ...there are so many and status is unknown. Matthew Oh is also suggesting that it will be receipted. I think we are all safe and with time we will get receipt. Nobody...none of the attorney's are suggesting refiling. Now the thought that whether my packet was properly filed or not? I think that will always be there in the back of one's mind but if the attorney has done his/her job correctly I think we should not worry. Its not rocket science and documents required for filing are well known...so I would discount this risk. It appears we are all safe because as we all know that no rejection notices have been generated, packets if returned should have come back by now as per Greg....All in all it all points towards our packets being on hold there at respective centers....but as you rightly pointed out..towards the last week of July keep calling centers to know..but even before that keep eye on check clearing as that by far is the best and earliest clue that all is well with the case.
Stay tuned and I will keep on updating here on this nice thread that you created...i really appreciate it. Keep up the good work buddy!!
Best Regards,
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rsdang
08-19 01:32 PM
Enjoy the new found freedom...
more...
.jpg "months after giving irth,")
chanduv23
03-13 10:20 AM
I couldnt belive it. But let us wait... I told some one that I will send sugar to them... Let me contact them through PM...
Good luck - Guess u r through
Good luck - Guess u r through
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arihant
02-09 03:14 PM
Does the SKIL bill apply only to MS, or MBA too ?
I do not think the language of the SKIL bill clarified that. All it said was advanced degree from the US (which can be interpreted as MS, MBA and any other degree (minimum 2 years) received after a 4 year bachelor's degree). So, who knows. We will have to wait and see how it will be interpreted if and when SKIL bill comes back for discussion.
I do not think the language of the SKIL bill clarified that. All it said was advanced degree from the US (which can be interpreted as MS, MBA and any other degree (minimum 2 years) received after a 4 year bachelor's degree). So, who knows. We will have to wait and see how it will be interpreted if and when SKIL bill comes back for discussion.
more...
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chanduv23
07-02 07:22 AM
If IV can outline how it is going to help, that would really make many people come out of the shelves. However, though we talk so much, people are still scared to identify themselves against the employer. However, they may be ready to outline everything against the specific employer as an anonymous person. we got to deal with a situation where people are ready but anonymously. How can we handle this.
A problem very similar to marriage breakups. People do not want to deal with the aftermaths of a breakup but willing to put up with crap from spouse.
GC being tied to employer has created all this situation.
If people are coming forward to complain - IV can help interace with auhorities, media etc..... COntact IV with specific issues.
A problem very similar to marriage breakups. People do not want to deal with the aftermaths of a breakup but willing to put up with crap from spouse.
GC being tied to employer has created all this situation.
If people are coming forward to complain - IV can help interace with auhorities, media etc..... COntact IV with specific issues.
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raj1998
04-17 08:22 AM
If USCIS is approving H1B/L1 applications, for any Software job, with a B.Com or B.A degree, then defenitely, it's a high time for it to change the rules for the H1B educational qualifications. I don't mind to port to EB1, if its accepting online degress, by getting a Ph.d deegree from a tri valley online university :D.
.
if one thinks thats wrong and USCIS needs to change then yes please approach through proper channels. definately, if possible to port using Phd from tri valley you may try..
.
if one thinks thats wrong and USCIS needs to change then yes please approach through proper channels. definately, if possible to port using Phd from tri valley you may try..
more...
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gsc999
03-13 05:42 PM
I agree with the reasons behind it, now that I know it.
Just so, everyone understand, I am not trying to find fault with IV or its members. I am trying to do, what you can call, soul searching.
We have around 25000 members. Why only 25000, when we know there are millions out there in the same boat. What is stopping them from joining IV and contributing? Of all these 25000 or so members, we only have around 4000 letters sent for Admin fixes.(May be I am wrong about this number, but I believe it is around that range.) What is preventing the others from doing so?
I strongly believe, that the answers to these questions might help IV in the long run, with more members and possibly more active members. Once we get to that point, IV will no longer be an organization, but it will be a MOVEMENT. Chances of success for a movement is always better than that of an organization. That is what I believe we should try to achieve. I hope everyone agress with that.
Thanks
-----
Yes, this is a conversation.
A growth to 25K members from 5K is an amazing five folds over a period of around two years. Having said that, there is tremendous scope for future growth. I will let Waldenpond define that, if need be.
IV's focus is defined by you, our members and the larger macrocosm of high skilled legal immigrant community. We need help and guidance from our members to achieve success with issues like what jnraajan mentions above.
Just to temper that thought. Using democracy as a metaphor, it would be great to have all the citizen participate and vote in elections but as we all know that is not the case. We might not have the million strong membership yet and if we use the pareto rule of 80:20 then I believe that we do have the "critical mass" to facilitate change. Change to the currently broken immigration process for the high skilled legal immigrants to USA. Lets marshall our existing resources and deploy them effectively to achieve success. We need your active participation for that.
IVers PM me if you are interested in volunteering, we can talk over the phone too. Let me know.
Just so, everyone understand, I am not trying to find fault with IV or its members. I am trying to do, what you can call, soul searching.
We have around 25000 members. Why only 25000, when we know there are millions out there in the same boat. What is stopping them from joining IV and contributing? Of all these 25000 or so members, we only have around 4000 letters sent for Admin fixes.(May be I am wrong about this number, but I believe it is around that range.) What is preventing the others from doing so?
I strongly believe, that the answers to these questions might help IV in the long run, with more members and possibly more active members. Once we get to that point, IV will no longer be an organization, but it will be a MOVEMENT. Chances of success for a movement is always better than that of an organization. That is what I believe we should try to achieve. I hope everyone agress with that.
Thanks
-----
Yes, this is a conversation.
A growth to 25K members from 5K is an amazing five folds over a period of around two years. Having said that, there is tremendous scope for future growth. I will let Waldenpond define that, if need be.
IV's focus is defined by you, our members and the larger macrocosm of high skilled legal immigrant community. We need help and guidance from our members to achieve success with issues like what jnraajan mentions above.
Just to temper that thought. Using democracy as a metaphor, it would be great to have all the citizen participate and vote in elections but as we all know that is not the case. We might not have the million strong membership yet and if we use the pareto rule of 80:20 then I believe that we do have the "critical mass" to facilitate change. Change to the currently broken immigration process for the high skilled legal immigrants to USA. Lets marshall our existing resources and deploy them effectively to achieve success. We need your active participation for that.
IVers PM me if you are interested in volunteering, we can talk over the phone too. Let me know.
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ilikekilo
04-09 03:16 PM
Our immigration doctor, as a std. practice, don't do TB test during pregnancy. That's the reason we didn't do TB test for her during July 2007 fiasco.
not sure, but one doctor said its absolutely OK to get a TB test during preg...so we looked for an other doc...
not sure, but one doctor said its absolutely OK to get a TB test during preg...so we looked for an other doc...
more...
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learning01
02-01 01:27 PM
Your position on will be part of IVs position.
We all have our roots in H1B. So, my friend what is your position?
What is IV's position on more H1Bs?
We all have our roots in H1B. So, my friend what is your position?
What is IV's position on more H1Bs?
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Vexir
06-16 07:57 PM
I'd buy it ..
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LMAO!
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add78
04-28 09:37 AM
It's not just 180 daysd before the application, it also includes 180 days AFTER the application.
This is the current section on 90 days period
(E)(i) In the case of an application described in clause (ii),
the employer did not displace and will not displace a United States
worker (as defined in paragraph (4)) employed by the employer within
the period beginning 90 days before and ending 90 days after the
date of filing of any visa petition supported by the application.
And the ammendment in the new bill
(1) NONDISPLACEMENT.--Subparagraph (E) of such section 212(n)(1) is amended--
(A) in clause (i)--
(i) by striking ``90 days'' both places it appears and inserting ``180 days'';
Yes, I got that already, I did not specify in my message as it is a "after the fact" requirement, i.e. I am not undermining its potential disastrous ramifications of having to force the layoff of already hired H1B if any other layoffs occur post the H1B hire, I was simply trying to focus my analysis on the impact BEFORE the H1B employee even be hired by employer or placed at client site. But yes, this applies AFTER 180 days as well.
This is the current section on 90 days period
(E)(i) In the case of an application described in clause (ii),
the employer did not displace and will not displace a United States
worker (as defined in paragraph (4)) employed by the employer within
the period beginning 90 days before and ending 90 days after the
date of filing of any visa petition supported by the application.
And the ammendment in the new bill
(1) NONDISPLACEMENT.--Subparagraph (E) of such section 212(n)(1) is amended--
(A) in clause (i)--
(i) by striking ``90 days'' both places it appears and inserting ``180 days'';
Yes, I got that already, I did not specify in my message as it is a "after the fact" requirement, i.e. I am not undermining its potential disastrous ramifications of having to force the layoff of already hired H1B if any other layoffs occur post the H1B hire, I was simply trying to focus my analysis on the impact BEFORE the H1B employee even be hired by employer or placed at client site. But yes, this applies AFTER 180 days as well.
Sreeshankar
05-01 04:12 PM
Hi
Today I have seen soft lud on my 485 application, My pd is dec06 eb2-India, I have called uscis IO she updated my address and she told me that they are waiting for visa number once visa number is available they are working on my case, I asked her why I got soft LUD, she replied that IO opened my file and find out that country VISA number is not available. Because they touch my file I got soft LUd.
Thanks
Aj
Please could you people kindly post which service center is it - TSC or NSC ?
Thank you very much.
Sree
Today I have seen soft lud on my 485 application, My pd is dec06 eb2-India, I have called uscis IO she updated my address and she told me that they are waiting for visa number once visa number is available they are working on my case, I asked her why I got soft LUD, she replied that IO opened my file and find out that country VISA number is not available. Because they touch my file I got soft LUd.
Thanks
Aj
Please could you people kindly post which service center is it - TSC or NSC ?
Thank you very much.
Sree
smisachu
07-31 05:00 PM
smisachu,
here is what i have figured out in last 4 year and i have been to various blogs.
1. i have read various blogs all are saying trading options with all good stuff you can hardly make any money. Most of the term you have used i have some idea what its is , but havent studied it properly.
There is no silver bullet that will make money all the time. If some one says so he is lying. Options can give you a chance to minimize risk but also cap profits. And you can be wiped out in options routinely. However in stocks it is a rare event when your stock goes to zero.
2. trading is gambling- you can have some edge by stastical analysis what have performed well over a long time. so backtest u r system over 10 years.
Trading is most certainly gambling, even fixed income. You can build a model and hedge to reduce risk and make it a calculated gamble but still a gamble..
3. would like to know what kind returns are you targeting with options
Most professional option traders generate income by writing options. Writing options are very risky as you have a theoretical loss probability reaching infinity. Forming synthetic positions will minimize risk but you might bleed hedging the position. A seller of option is long theta and short delta; a buyer of options is short theta and long delta. Think of theta as the time factor and delta as the hedge factor to put simply. If you sell a call option you have to hedge the option by buying delta units of the underlying stock. And when the call is at the money or near you will end up buying the stock high and selling the stock low, thus loosing money. Black and Scholes famously showed that in an option trade you can delta hedge the risk away. This is not possible and their model is flawed. But it is simple and intuitive and every one serious in trading options NEEDS to learn the model. You don�t have to know the derivation but just the model, and the partial differential equation. I can talk about the flaw and the smile and smile dynamics but many of these concepts need to be drawn out and very hard to explain with out drawing.
4. spreads can be an way to go ..but has to be directional bet or else difficult. I have seen lot of iron condor guys breaking down in recent melt down and up.
Any model will work only for certain duration. That is why you need to keep running it and that is why quants have jobs. In stat arb sometimes you run models 3 times or more a day. I mean complicated mathematical models getting data from a provider and running large data sets to find the mean. And then trade when the stock diverges from the mean.
Each strategy or model has shelf life, so you need to keep researching and running new models.
Spreads are a good way of limiting down side while also capping upside. Volatility spreads are the most profitable ones and again short straddle makes money almost 95% of times but the 5% when they loose they will loose big. You need to have a certain limiting conditions and then hedge the spread with in this range. Usually you will make a little or loose a little. Sometimes you will hit a home run. It is easy to show this on a graph
5. so i kind of believe in hit and run and momentum play - what else can make you money where nothing is certain
I don�t trade momentum, swing or technical indicators. But there are profitable traders who do this.
6. buying when rsi2 is depressed and selling quickly - can be spread havent back tested it.
i backtest using stockfetcher. but u cant backtest options, you have to manually do it. itried some using think or swim platform.
Relative strength Index, McClellan RSI(2) and Oscillators can be an indicator of stock movement. Relating it to the option market is abstract but I think possible. But I feel the options will already be priced in for such potential movements in the underlying. A very good quant I know always says any new strategy will first manifest itself in the derivatives market before equity as the players there are much more sophisticated.
I am not sure which retail trading platform has good back testing, try options first with scottrade. I use Bloomberg which has loads of functions like OVME-GO where you can back test , simulate and see the volatility surface.
so i am trying to see if anybody else has any good strategy to share.
There are many good strategies but I have no idea on sophistication of each individual. For example right now you can sell credit default swaps on Goldman sachs medium senior secured notes and hedge it with delta units of binary in-the-money call options on the VIX. This will give you synthetic exposure to the notes with steady cash flow and the binaries are cheap. If goldman defaults the VIX will sky rocket giving you a handsome payout better than what you will have to pay on the senior secured notes because of high recovery rate if all the default climbs up to the senior tranche. Actually this would be equal to the end of the world in today�s market.
Or better yet just buy SPX and sit, the market is doing all the work for you.
The US natural gas market is in contango (I swear this is not jargon:o, there is no other term). So buy long dated/leap calls at the money now. In 2 years you will be so deep in the money you wont know what to do. But average retail investor cannot hedge this as he cannot trade spot.
So I guess my point is there are sophisticated ways to make money for which the average retail investor has no access to. If there is a simple way then it has already been exploited under the no-arbitrage clause of free markets.
If you have 2-5 year horizon. Go long the market and sit on it would be my best advice. If people want to meet and share ideas I am open to it. I live in NJ so NY/NJ is fine spot to meet.
here is what i have figured out in last 4 year and i have been to various blogs.
1. i have read various blogs all are saying trading options with all good stuff you can hardly make any money. Most of the term you have used i have some idea what its is , but havent studied it properly.
There is no silver bullet that will make money all the time. If some one says so he is lying. Options can give you a chance to minimize risk but also cap profits. And you can be wiped out in options routinely. However in stocks it is a rare event when your stock goes to zero.
2. trading is gambling- you can have some edge by stastical analysis what have performed well over a long time. so backtest u r system over 10 years.
Trading is most certainly gambling, even fixed income. You can build a model and hedge to reduce risk and make it a calculated gamble but still a gamble..
3. would like to know what kind returns are you targeting with options
Most professional option traders generate income by writing options. Writing options are very risky as you have a theoretical loss probability reaching infinity. Forming synthetic positions will minimize risk but you might bleed hedging the position. A seller of option is long theta and short delta; a buyer of options is short theta and long delta. Think of theta as the time factor and delta as the hedge factor to put simply. If you sell a call option you have to hedge the option by buying delta units of the underlying stock. And when the call is at the money or near you will end up buying the stock high and selling the stock low, thus loosing money. Black and Scholes famously showed that in an option trade you can delta hedge the risk away. This is not possible and their model is flawed. But it is simple and intuitive and every one serious in trading options NEEDS to learn the model. You don�t have to know the derivation but just the model, and the partial differential equation. I can talk about the flaw and the smile and smile dynamics but many of these concepts need to be drawn out and very hard to explain with out drawing.
4. spreads can be an way to go ..but has to be directional bet or else difficult. I have seen lot of iron condor guys breaking down in recent melt down and up.
Any model will work only for certain duration. That is why you need to keep running it and that is why quants have jobs. In stat arb sometimes you run models 3 times or more a day. I mean complicated mathematical models getting data from a provider and running large data sets to find the mean. And then trade when the stock diverges from the mean.
Each strategy or model has shelf life, so you need to keep researching and running new models.
Spreads are a good way of limiting down side while also capping upside. Volatility spreads are the most profitable ones and again short straddle makes money almost 95% of times but the 5% when they loose they will loose big. You need to have a certain limiting conditions and then hedge the spread with in this range. Usually you will make a little or loose a little. Sometimes you will hit a home run. It is easy to show this on a graph
5. so i kind of believe in hit and run and momentum play - what else can make you money where nothing is certain
I don�t trade momentum, swing or technical indicators. But there are profitable traders who do this.
6. buying when rsi2 is depressed and selling quickly - can be spread havent back tested it.
i backtest using stockfetcher. but u cant backtest options, you have to manually do it. itried some using think or swim platform.
Relative strength Index, McClellan RSI(2) and Oscillators can be an indicator of stock movement. Relating it to the option market is abstract but I think possible. But I feel the options will already be priced in for such potential movements in the underlying. A very good quant I know always says any new strategy will first manifest itself in the derivatives market before equity as the players there are much more sophisticated.
I am not sure which retail trading platform has good back testing, try options first with scottrade. I use Bloomberg which has loads of functions like OVME-GO where you can back test , simulate and see the volatility surface.
so i am trying to see if anybody else has any good strategy to share.
There are many good strategies but I have no idea on sophistication of each individual. For example right now you can sell credit default swaps on Goldman sachs medium senior secured notes and hedge it with delta units of binary in-the-money call options on the VIX. This will give you synthetic exposure to the notes with steady cash flow and the binaries are cheap. If goldman defaults the VIX will sky rocket giving you a handsome payout better than what you will have to pay on the senior secured notes because of high recovery rate if all the default climbs up to the senior tranche. Actually this would be equal to the end of the world in today�s market.
Or better yet just buy SPX and sit, the market is doing all the work for you.
The US natural gas market is in contango (I swear this is not jargon:o, there is no other term). So buy long dated/leap calls at the money now. In 2 years you will be so deep in the money you wont know what to do. But average retail investor cannot hedge this as he cannot trade spot.
So I guess my point is there are sophisticated ways to make money for which the average retail investor has no access to. If there is a simple way then it has already been exploited under the no-arbitrage clause of free markets.
If you have 2-5 year horizon. Go long the market and sit on it would be my best advice. If people want to meet and share ideas I am open to it. I live in NJ so NY/NJ is fine spot to meet.
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