alisa
01-21 11:13 AM
Assuming everyone stays the course, under these timelines
1. At least 5% of applicants will be sponsored by their American children.
2. Another 5% will have their first million and move to the investor's category.
The timelines would be a maximum of 20 years or so, at which point people would be sponsored by their children.
Ok. So thats a 10 percent decrease in accumulation rate.
Lets add another 10 percent decrease to that. These will be 10 percent that commit suicide, suffer a lay-off, or just pack up and go back.
So, the accumulation rate decreases to 15600, the initial backlogs from 2001, and 2002 also decreased to 80 percent their currently assumed values. Following are the results. Good news. Wait time decreases. Bad news, you still have to send your dependents back as we are not counting them.
The timelines are now less than 20 years.
For India. (ROW wait times are less than 5-10 years anyway according to this model)
YApp YC(New) YC(Old)
2001 2011 2013
2002 2015 2018
2003 2016 2020
2004 2018 2022
2005 2020 2024
2006 2021 2026
2007 2023 2028
2008 2024 2030
2009 2026 2032
2010 2027 2034
In anycase, there is a point to this exercise.
I don't want to pull numbers out of my ass. I want to make a good faith effort in estimating what the wait times would be with things being the way they are. A reasonable model should show that for Indians, the situation is hopeless. For others, the situation is painful. The current model shows that. I just want to give this some time, and get the best feedback and incorporate that in it.
Maybe, then I will be able to convince people (especially from India) to get active, and stop being ignoramuses asking innocently 'Oh! Is the situation really that bad?'
If anyone has any ideas on modelling EB-2 vs EB-3 for India, that would also be helpful. Given some data, simple math should give us good enough estimates.
1. At least 5% of applicants will be sponsored by their American children.
2. Another 5% will have their first million and move to the investor's category.
The timelines would be a maximum of 20 years or so, at which point people would be sponsored by their children.
Ok. So thats a 10 percent decrease in accumulation rate.
Lets add another 10 percent decrease to that. These will be 10 percent that commit suicide, suffer a lay-off, or just pack up and go back.
So, the accumulation rate decreases to 15600, the initial backlogs from 2001, and 2002 also decreased to 80 percent their currently assumed values. Following are the results. Good news. Wait time decreases. Bad news, you still have to send your dependents back as we are not counting them.
The timelines are now less than 20 years.
For India. (ROW wait times are less than 5-10 years anyway according to this model)
YApp YC(New) YC(Old)
2001 2011 2013
2002 2015 2018
2003 2016 2020
2004 2018 2022
2005 2020 2024
2006 2021 2026
2007 2023 2028
2008 2024 2030
2009 2026 2032
2010 2027 2034
In anycase, there is a point to this exercise.
I don't want to pull numbers out of my ass. I want to make a good faith effort in estimating what the wait times would be with things being the way they are. A reasonable model should show that for Indians, the situation is hopeless. For others, the situation is painful. The current model shows that. I just want to give this some time, and get the best feedback and incorporate that in it.
Maybe, then I will be able to convince people (especially from India) to get active, and stop being ignoramuses asking innocently 'Oh! Is the situation really that bad?'
If anyone has any ideas on modelling EB-2 vs EB-3 for India, that would also be helpful. Given some data, simple math should give us good enough estimates.
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dealsnet
03-19 10:07 AM
85,000 PERM cases certified in 2007. 2007 is a typical heavy filing year still...
One year 140,000 EB based visas available. If some how some of the back logs are eliminated, the future looks good as 140K for a year and less than 100K labor certifications per year. If the USCIS process with maximum visa/year, it is possible.
http://www.usavisanow.com/perm07.pdf
see a chart
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pezNTiCXNupwoSrZGE4kqcg&gid=1
One year 140,000 EB based visas available. If some how some of the back logs are eliminated, the future looks good as 140K for a year and less than 100K labor certifications per year. If the USCIS process with maximum visa/year, it is possible.
http://www.usavisanow.com/perm07.pdf
see a chart
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pezNTiCXNupwoSrZGE4kqcg&gid=1
delax
07-14 08:01 PM
Yes. I VOLUNTARILY exclude myself from any such potential benefit. :)
I am surprised by the defence of this lawfirm in most of your posts on this forum.
And I am surprised by you using a contribution to Immigrationvoice as the only yradstick for working towards immigrant "rights"
By that yardstick neither of us can proclaim ourselves as being working towards immigrant "rights".
Note the quotes - a privilege cannot be a right. DUE PROCESS is your right towards attaing that privilege - we need to focus on that - not on what Murthy does or does not do or even more importantly what you expect her to do or not to do.
I am surprised by the defence of this lawfirm in most of your posts on this forum.
And I am surprised by you using a contribution to Immigrationvoice as the only yradstick for working towards immigrant "rights"
By that yardstick neither of us can proclaim ourselves as being working towards immigrant "rights".
Note the quotes - a privilege cannot be a right. DUE PROCESS is your right towards attaing that privilege - we need to focus on that - not on what Murthy does or does not do or even more importantly what you expect her to do or not to do.
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walking_dude
10-30 06:38 PM
Thanks for sending the FOIA letter. I don't get the not able to vote part! Every logged in IV member should be able to vote. Where you logged in?
I hope the 70 is not correct. I sent in the FOIA request (notarized) and also mobilized few of my friends. The number 70 is incorrect, because it does not allow me to vote there, otherwise I am sure it would be atleast 71.
I hope the 70 is not correct. I sent in the FOIA request (notarized) and also mobilized few of my friends. The number 70 is incorrect, because it does not allow me to vote there, otherwise I am sure it would be atleast 71.
more...
veereddy
06-11 12:49 PM
Sent
rweworld1
07-12 04:38 PM
Hi,
My PD is March 1st 2006. Just wondering is March 1st is in or out? i.e. cut off is March 2nd or March 1st?
thanks,
Rwe
My PD is March 1st 2006. Just wondering is March 1st is in or out? i.e. cut off is March 2nd or March 1st?
thanks,
Rwe
more...
yabadaba
12-27 08:22 AM
this was back in 2004...was on opt till then...wellsfargo just needed my h1b approval notice to approve my mortgage
plus for tax purposes u r considered a permanent resident. that means u have lived in ur state for x number of days in a calendar year...never had issues with getting credit cards, car loan, etc.
of course i had 4 yrs of credit history before that..dont know if that helped.
plus for tax purposes u r considered a permanent resident. that means u have lived in ur state for x number of days in a calendar year...never had issues with getting credit cards, car loan, etc.
of course i had 4 yrs of credit history before that..dont know if that helped.
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mgmanoj
06-10 07:49 PM
Done - sent to Alabama senators
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greencard_fever
12-12 11:58 AM
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_4406.html
Did you guys noticed there is no Explanation about EB cutoff dates in this VB as they used to put some comments about how the going forward will be..thats strange:mad:
Did you guys noticed there is no Explanation about EB cutoff dates in this VB as they used to put some comments about how the going forward will be..thats strange:mad:
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java98
08-12 07:41 PM
I complete agree with your ideas and effort.
Please count me in.
God Bless you all
Please count me in.
God Bless you all
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sri1309
12-12 06:43 AM
Agreed! But when you call your bank to send you a debit card, they send it in days if not in weeks....that shows a sign of inter-dependability and a sense of need for each other. Sort of...I need you, you need me. You do not have to file MTR if they don't send you a debit card within 10 days.
Compare that with US consulate and DOS VISA bulletin and GC process...
Kumar,
We recently had this experience with our bank. We saw a level of carelessness thrice. You know what, we closed our account with the bank and open it with a new one. Please do not assume somebody is doing a favor on you. You contribute and work hard. You will get benefits. Same applies to the other party also. Please be able to see from both sides, else it will leave a bad taste for you as you seem to assume that you are the taker. Most of us are givers too here. Please respect the contribution IF you make. I have seen this one-sided feeling mostly with people who are just takers and do not contribute atall. If thats the case, then you are absolutely right.
But not in my case. Doesnt look in Kavita's case or many others, as I see.
Compare that with US consulate and DOS VISA bulletin and GC process...
Kumar,
We recently had this experience with our bank. We saw a level of carelessness thrice. You know what, we closed our account with the bank and open it with a new one. Please do not assume somebody is doing a favor on you. You contribute and work hard. You will get benefits. Same applies to the other party also. Please be able to see from both sides, else it will leave a bad taste for you as you seem to assume that you are the taker. Most of us are givers too here. Please respect the contribution IF you make. I have seen this one-sided feeling mostly with people who are just takers and do not contribute atall. If thats the case, then you are absolutely right.
But not in my case. Doesnt look in Kavita's case or many others, as I see.
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kpchal2
07-18 09:52 AM
hi all, in the same boat too. mine was filed on july 2nd and there is a fedex confirmation about it. i did not hear from any one i know about these rejections or returns until i saw gregs blog. can any one shed a light if they know some one who got a reject. also can you please let me know if there is any way we can find out from uscis or from any one relevant about our application. it is too much of a hassle already and dont want to add more delays to this already cumbersome and sleepless process
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spsrini
11-18 07:22 AM
My receipt number is NRC2008065342
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feedfront
10-13 01:57 PM
feedfront, the receipt date on my I-485 receipt notice is October 5, 2007.
My attorney had inquired with USCIS but hasn't received any response. As I mentioned earlier neither a SR, senator/congressman inquiry has helped!
I'd also send an email to NSC but got an generic message.
How can I write to USCIS director?
thank you!
thecipher5
Here is the link to a post by 'mchatrvd ' to contact director..
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum5-all-other-green-card-issues/1599351-august-2010-approvals-tracker-58.html#post1982324
My attorney had inquired with USCIS but hasn't received any response. As I mentioned earlier neither a SR, senator/congressman inquiry has helped!
I'd also send an email to NSC but got an generic message.
How can I write to USCIS director?
thank you!
thecipher5
Here is the link to a post by 'mchatrvd ' to contact director..
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum5-all-other-green-card-issues/1599351-august-2010-approvals-tracker-58.html#post1982324
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deepakjain
08-10 04:36 PM
Dude,
now a days predictions have become more like weather forecasting saying that past few years we had rains around this time hence forth it may rain. :p
2010, all those who filed 485 by 2006 will be cleared up and will be given GC, 2010 end there will be another wave of 485 filers who will continue as cash cows for next 5 years for EAD and AP, 2007 july filers will be cleared up by 2012. Do not ask the source of information it is more of stock market and weather forecast were in stocks falls and gains every 5th year and 6th of June is the first day of monsoon in mumbai....:D
No point in giving stess to your grey cells, all are predictive cycle &, process
now a days predictions have become more like weather forecasting saying that past few years we had rains around this time hence forth it may rain. :p
2010, all those who filed 485 by 2006 will be cleared up and will be given GC, 2010 end there will be another wave of 485 filers who will continue as cash cows for next 5 years for EAD and AP, 2007 july filers will be cleared up by 2012. Do not ask the source of information it is more of stock market and weather forecast were in stocks falls and gains every 5th year and 6th of June is the first day of monsoon in mumbai....:D
No point in giving stess to your grey cells, all are predictive cycle &, process
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work4pd
04-03 10:11 PM
?? A new bill in senate to reform H1B ???
I was just watching LuDobb's show on CNN and saw a clip on a proposed bill (being prepared by Sen.Durbin and another whose name I forgot) to revamp/reform H1B program. From the brief discussion, got the impression that the bill is more concentrated on controlling the h1B program with more checks and rules etc. Obviously Dobbs liked it - not sure if there are any other measures in that bill. Also not sure why another bill if CIR/STRIVE act is in works which is supposed to cover all immigration issues. Anyone else saw any related news elsewhere?
Also saw this article (sorry if its already discussed somewhere):
http://www.infoworld.com/article/07/04/03/HNsenateh1bbill_1.html
Here is another news link -
http://news.com.com/Senate+bill+gives+Americans+preference+for+tech+jo bs/2100-1014_3-6172981.html?tag=nefd.top
I was just watching LuDobb's show on CNN and saw a clip on a proposed bill (being prepared by Sen.Durbin and another whose name I forgot) to revamp/reform H1B program. From the brief discussion, got the impression that the bill is more concentrated on controlling the h1B program with more checks and rules etc. Obviously Dobbs liked it - not sure if there are any other measures in that bill. Also not sure why another bill if CIR/STRIVE act is in works which is supposed to cover all immigration issues. Anyone else saw any related news elsewhere?
Also saw this article (sorry if its already discussed somewhere):
http://www.infoworld.com/article/07/04/03/HNsenateh1bbill_1.html
Here is another news link -
http://news.com.com/Senate+bill+gives+Americans+preference+for+tech+jo bs/2100-1014_3-6172981.html?tag=nefd.top
more...
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va_dude
03-19 08:44 AM
Guys... can we drop the whole discussion about this guy's name.
It is no advisable to discuss such topics in public forums on the internet. These keywords attract unwarranted attention.
It is no advisable to discuss such topics in public forums on the internet. These keywords attract unwarranted attention.
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anurakt
12-30 11:51 PM
Add St.Louis --- www.myilaaka.com
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makemygc
03-18 07:37 PM
Guys,
Hope this thread will be useful for somebody who is looking for american company for green card processing. They wont get into the trap. So I am giving out the information from the known source(friends).
Company1: Deloitte
Company2: Chase
These two companies promised doing green card cards,they filed h1s, but did not file green card.Whatever reason (bad economy) may be, they did not sponsor green cards for those they promised to do. So be careful. It is not gaurantee.
Also, you can list the companies you know whoever promised, but did not file.
Wow...I didn't realize this thread is opened until today. I can second you on Deloitte. I joined Deloitte & Touche several years back and left the company in 3 months. HR promissed me to file my GC as soon as I join them but started giving excuses once I joined. Later on they told me that they will file after 1 year and that too dependent on my performance....I decide to part my ways with liars and joined a different company and now after several years I'm glad that I made that decision...today I'm in a much better position in a much better company. Thought mine may be the only case but looking at this thread makes me feel I was not all alone.
Not only this, they pay you different if you are an H1 holder as compared to others. I found this when I joined and found someone junior to me getting paid more than I was.
Hope this thread will be useful for somebody who is looking for american company for green card processing. They wont get into the trap. So I am giving out the information from the known source(friends).
Company1: Deloitte
Company2: Chase
These two companies promised doing green card cards,they filed h1s, but did not file green card.Whatever reason (bad economy) may be, they did not sponsor green cards for those they promised to do. So be careful. It is not gaurantee.
Also, you can list the companies you know whoever promised, but did not file.
Wow...I didn't realize this thread is opened until today. I can second you on Deloitte. I joined Deloitte & Touche several years back and left the company in 3 months. HR promissed me to file my GC as soon as I join them but started giving excuses once I joined. Later on they told me that they will file after 1 year and that too dependent on my performance....I decide to part my ways with liars and joined a different company and now after several years I'm glad that I made that decision...today I'm in a much better position in a much better company. Thought mine may be the only case but looking at this thread makes me feel I was not all alone.
Not only this, they pay you different if you are an H1 holder as compared to others. I found this when I joined and found someone junior to me getting paid more than I was.
reddymjm
12-08 12:02 AM
Nrc2008069509.
solaris27
07-27 07:48 AM
Never join SRG America (Bartronics America)
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