ameryki
03-17 03:00 PM
PD Nov 2005 filed in Aug 2007
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singhsa3
02-21 02:41 PM
Assuming you are right then,
average visa issued for EB1 ROW+Non ROW over the last 5 years have been 26K,
Now assuming this year the demand would be close to average then. It leaves 14K for EB2
Implying 12/2003 dates movement is very likely as 14k>5k (your number)
I can share some estimates for EB2 India through Dec03. I wish had the cases as a database, Then we could query for all dates.
Column 1: PD
Column 2: Nbr. Of EB2 India pending from
Column 3: Estimated Universe of EB2 India Pending ( to Universe ratio of 6.75%)
Column 4: Cumulative EB2 India pending
2000-01 0 - -
2000-03 0 - -
2000-04 1 15 15
2000-06 1 15 30
2000-08 0 - 30
2000-11 1 15 44
2000-12 0 - 44
2001-01 0 - 44
2001-03 1 15 59
2001-04 3 44 104
2001-05 2 30 133
2001-06 6 89 222
2001-07 3 44 267
2001-08 1 15 281
2001-09 1 15 296
2001-10 6 89 385
2001-11 2 30 415
2001-12 2 30 444
2002-01 5 74 519
2002-02 4 59 578
2002-03 1 15 593
2002-04 3 44 637
2002-05 11 163 800
2002-06 7 104 904
2002-07 5 74 978
2002-08 5 74 1,052
2002-09 5 74 1,126
2002-10 14 207 1,333
2002-11 16 237 1,570
2002-12 11 163 1,733
2003-01 13 193 1,926
2003-02 12 178 2,104
2003-03 20 296 2,400
2003-04 13 193 2,593
2003-05 16 237 2,830
2003-06 17 252 3,081
2003-07 22 326 3,407
2003-08 18 267 3,674
2003-09 18 267 3,941
2003-10 29 430 4,370
2003-11 17 252 4,622
2003-12 18 267 4,889
Total 330 4,889
average visa issued for EB1 ROW+Non ROW over the last 5 years have been 26K,
Now assuming this year the demand would be close to average then. It leaves 14K for EB2
Implying 12/2003 dates movement is very likely as 14k>5k (your number)
I can share some estimates for EB2 India through Dec03. I wish had the cases as a database, Then we could query for all dates.
Column 1: PD
Column 2: Nbr. Of EB2 India pending from
Column 3: Estimated Universe of EB2 India Pending ( to Universe ratio of 6.75%)
Column 4: Cumulative EB2 India pending
2000-01 0 - -
2000-03 0 - -
2000-04 1 15 15
2000-06 1 15 30
2000-08 0 - 30
2000-11 1 15 44
2000-12 0 - 44
2001-01 0 - 44
2001-03 1 15 59
2001-04 3 44 104
2001-05 2 30 133
2001-06 6 89 222
2001-07 3 44 267
2001-08 1 15 281
2001-09 1 15 296
2001-10 6 89 385
2001-11 2 30 415
2001-12 2 30 444
2002-01 5 74 519
2002-02 4 59 578
2002-03 1 15 593
2002-04 3 44 637
2002-05 11 163 800
2002-06 7 104 904
2002-07 5 74 978
2002-08 5 74 1,052
2002-09 5 74 1,126
2002-10 14 207 1,333
2002-11 16 237 1,570
2002-12 11 163 1,733
2003-01 13 193 1,926
2003-02 12 178 2,104
2003-03 20 296 2,400
2003-04 13 193 2,593
2003-05 16 237 2,830
2003-06 17 252 3,081
2003-07 22 326 3,407
2003-08 18 267 3,674
2003-09 18 267 3,941
2003-10 29 430 4,370
2003-11 17 252 4,622
2003-12 18 267 4,889
Total 330 4,889
hope_4_best
06-30 10:42 PM
I think fedex does some same day delivery service from some cities, I called they had that service from my city, you might have to give the package very early like 4 or 5 am on monday, call 1800-go-fedex for details
If FedEx doen't help try USPS, they also have overnight delivery.
If you handover the document on Sunday evening before 5.00 PM, by Monday noon it will be delivered.
If FedEx doen't help try USPS, they also have overnight delivery.
If you handover the document on Sunday evening before 5.00 PM, by Monday noon it will be delivered.
2011 Flaming Hot Car
GCard_Dream
01-17 02:18 PM
anurakt,
The intent of the message is appropriate but the presentation isn't. I know core team is very frustrated with the lack to contribution and it's perfectly understandable but language like this will only turn more people off and that won't help anyone.
I agree with the post earlier that may be you should just delete your post for the good of the community and I am sure you know that.
The intent of the message is appropriate but the presentation isn't. I know core team is very frustrated with the lack to contribution and it's perfectly understandable but language like this will only turn more people off and that won't help anyone.
I agree with the post earlier that may be you should just delete your post for the good of the community and I am sure you know that.
more...
alisa
01-21 02:13 AM
Anyone??
This is all for EB-3.
I think this is the best case scenario.
Pardon my ignorance, but I am assuming that EB-2 eats up from EB-3's numbers, and so EB-2 wait times will be better than what is estimated here for EB-3, at the expense of the EB-3 waiting times ofcourse.
For India:
Depletion_rate = 10500/year
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year
For ROW:
Depletion_rate = 25000/year (Kinda curves-fits to retire all 2001 backlog by 2006, and 2002 backlog by 2008)
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year (Estimated to be the same as that of India)
All numbers rounded off. No
For 2001: Year_current = 2001 + (123194/Depletion_rate)
For 2002: Year_current = 2002 + (160274/Depletion_rate)
For 2003 and later
Year_current = Year_applied + ( (Year_applied-2002)*(Accumulation_rate-Depletion_rate) + 160274) / Depletion_rate
Here are the results. YA is year applied. YC is Year your PD will be current.
No processing delay assumed.
...........India.. ROW
D_rate 10000 25000
A_rate 19500 19500
YA YC YC
2001 2013 2006
2002 2018 2008
2003 2020 2009
2004 2022 2010
2005 2024 2011
2006 2026 2012
2007 2028 2012
2008 2030 2013
2009 2032 2014
2010 2034 2015
I am open to suggestions on how this model can be improved.
If this model, and these estimates are reasonably accurate, lets come out with our own visa bulletin.
This is all for EB-3.
I think this is the best case scenario.
Pardon my ignorance, but I am assuming that EB-2 eats up from EB-3's numbers, and so EB-2 wait times will be better than what is estimated here for EB-3, at the expense of the EB-3 waiting times ofcourse.
For India:
Depletion_rate = 10500/year
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year
For ROW:
Depletion_rate = 25000/year (Kinda curves-fits to retire all 2001 backlog by 2006, and 2002 backlog by 2008)
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year (Estimated to be the same as that of India)
All numbers rounded off. No
For 2001: Year_current = 2001 + (123194/Depletion_rate)
For 2002: Year_current = 2002 + (160274/Depletion_rate)
For 2003 and later
Year_current = Year_applied + ( (Year_applied-2002)*(Accumulation_rate-Depletion_rate) + 160274) / Depletion_rate
Here are the results. YA is year applied. YC is Year your PD will be current.
No processing delay assumed.
...........India.. ROW
D_rate 10000 25000
A_rate 19500 19500
YA YC YC
2001 2013 2006
2002 2018 2008
2003 2020 2009
2004 2022 2010
2005 2024 2011
2006 2026 2012
2007 2028 2012
2008 2030 2013
2009 2032 2014
2010 2034 2015
I am open to suggestions on how this model can be improved.
If this model, and these estimates are reasonably accurate, lets come out with our own visa bulletin.
pkak
07-13 11:45 AM
They have no reason to pull the dates back. Most 2004, 2005, part 2006 people got to apply during the july07 fiasco. In the past, they have pulled the dates back if new applications flooded in when they pushed the dates up.
USCIS will process in the following order now
1. Pull out cases based on PD, review then approve/deny/RFE
2. While waiting for RFE, process the next based on PD
3. IF the RFE response window is outside of this fiscal, they will re-allocate the visa number to another approvable case.
They will manage to process about 20k cases approving as many as possible by Sep30th2008.
Therefore, only those with pending RFEs will be delayed into next year.
USCIS is not all that inefficient or incompetent, not sure about DOS (to be fair, the Visa Office seems to have got its act together in the recent months)
Where the visa numbers in Oct'08 will be will depend on how proactive IV is.
Here is my take on the situation.
DOS said that they used up 80% of EB numbers in first 3 quarters of Fiscal year '08, that leaves 28K (20% of 140K) visas available for last quarter of Fiscal year '08.
Since higher priority categories are already current, this means that most of these visas have to be used by EB2 India/China.
Hence DOS made it an option for USCIS to issue another 25K visas to EB2 India/China.
See my analysis:
I agree
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote:
Originally Posted by justAnotherFile
i believe the argument that this sudden jump was made to help eb2 china is pure hogwash.
Scanning the FLC database, 5978 Indian Labor applicants with Level III/IV wage rates benefit with this jump, vs 761 Labor applicants from China.
Assuming one labor approval generates 2.5 AOS applications, and dividing the total AOS applications by 2 (attrition, I-140 denials, EB3 cases etc), approx 15K Indians benefit, vs <2K people from China.
Add to this 04/01/2004-03/27/2005 Indian applicants whose labor cases were adjudicated by Backlog Centers (approx 6000 Level III/IV applications , assuming same ball-park as 5853 similar India applicants certified in Fiscal year 2006), approx 7.5K more Indian�s will benefit.)
If USCIS uses these 25K visas, then in Oct'08, they get the first quarter allocation for Fiscal year '09, and my calculation shows that EB2 India/China will move to atleast Jul 1, 06 (based on 627 India/China Level III/IV labor approvals forthat period).
If USCIS lets the 25K visas to go waste, then in Oct'08, PDs will move back to mid 04.
USCIS will process in the following order now
1. Pull out cases based on PD, review then approve/deny/RFE
2. While waiting for RFE, process the next based on PD
3. IF the RFE response window is outside of this fiscal, they will re-allocate the visa number to another approvable case.
They will manage to process about 20k cases approving as many as possible by Sep30th2008.
Therefore, only those with pending RFEs will be delayed into next year.
USCIS is not all that inefficient or incompetent, not sure about DOS (to be fair, the Visa Office seems to have got its act together in the recent months)
Where the visa numbers in Oct'08 will be will depend on how proactive IV is.
Here is my take on the situation.
DOS said that they used up 80% of EB numbers in first 3 quarters of Fiscal year '08, that leaves 28K (20% of 140K) visas available for last quarter of Fiscal year '08.
Since higher priority categories are already current, this means that most of these visas have to be used by EB2 India/China.
Hence DOS made it an option for USCIS to issue another 25K visas to EB2 India/China.
See my analysis:
I agree
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote:
Originally Posted by justAnotherFile
i believe the argument that this sudden jump was made to help eb2 china is pure hogwash.
Scanning the FLC database, 5978 Indian Labor applicants with Level III/IV wage rates benefit with this jump, vs 761 Labor applicants from China.
Assuming one labor approval generates 2.5 AOS applications, and dividing the total AOS applications by 2 (attrition, I-140 denials, EB3 cases etc), approx 15K Indians benefit, vs <2K people from China.
Add to this 04/01/2004-03/27/2005 Indian applicants whose labor cases were adjudicated by Backlog Centers (approx 6000 Level III/IV applications , assuming same ball-park as 5853 similar India applicants certified in Fiscal year 2006), approx 7.5K more Indian�s will benefit.)
If USCIS uses these 25K visas, then in Oct'08, they get the first quarter allocation for Fiscal year '09, and my calculation shows that EB2 India/China will move to atleast Jul 1, 06 (based on 627 India/China Level III/IV labor approvals forthat period).
If USCIS lets the 25K visas to go waste, then in Oct'08, PDs will move back to mid 04.
more...
singhsa3
03-04 12:54 PM
By the in PA they don't give you Drivers License if you are on EAD if your EAD validity is less than a year.
2010 Mazda RX7 Hot Car
Legal
07-13 10:35 AM
#67 Today, 09:28 AM
alterego
Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 460
Keep in mind two things. Many, quite possibly most of the July VB fiasco filed 485s have not been processed yet, Eb2 or EB3 India. There have been more recently (in the past couple of months) but still not most.
When a few IV members predicted the rapid movment of EB2 -I, they were dismissed as naive, and fantasizing. Yet, here we are with the EB-2-I PD current for June 2006. Lately, I'm having more faith in the philosophical statement -"The truth is unknowable". :) and having less and less faith on the speculations/ predictions of most IV members.
Are you sure about your above statement? My interpretation is since the processing date for 485s at the Nebraska service center is July 27th 2007, all the 485S received before that date have been processed, and are waiting only for visa number assignment.
I would like to fantasize next fee weeks my assumption is correct:). My PD is EB2-I feb 2006, RD July 2nd 2007.
alterego
Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 460
Keep in mind two things. Many, quite possibly most of the July VB fiasco filed 485s have not been processed yet, Eb2 or EB3 India. There have been more recently (in the past couple of months) but still not most.
When a few IV members predicted the rapid movment of EB2 -I, they were dismissed as naive, and fantasizing. Yet, here we are with the EB-2-I PD current for June 2006. Lately, I'm having more faith in the philosophical statement -"The truth is unknowable". :) and having less and less faith on the speculations/ predictions of most IV members.
Are you sure about your above statement? My interpretation is since the processing date for 485s at the Nebraska service center is July 27th 2007, all the 485S received before that date have been processed, and are waiting only for visa number assignment.
I would like to fantasize next fee weeks my assumption is correct:). My PD is EB2-I feb 2006, RD July 2nd 2007.
more...
eb3retro
08-18 08:52 PM
Alright retro I'm sorry I upset you so much,it was not a remark which was meant to be taken seriously.I know there is no difference in intelligence between the two.Hope you will get cheered now and maybe drop in for a beer sometime.And I hope you get you green card soon too.
thanks for the beer offer, but i dont drink..just an fyi - i got the receipts long back..
thanks for the beer offer, but i dont drink..just an fyi - i got the receipts long back..
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gcseeker2002
12-27 10:38 AM
Dubai - no issues without valid stamp
Frankfurt, Munich, Hamburg - I heard no issues now, if u have valid i 797 - waiting forr some comments
Amsterdam/Schiphol - No issue without valid stamp
London - ?????
Seoul - ?????
Singapore - ??????
Bangkok - ?????
Kuwait - ?????
Zurich -- ????
Geneva -- ???
God Bless Asian countries :
Singapore - Never heard of transit visa
Bangkok - Never heard of transit visa
Seoul - Never heard of transit visa
Tokyo - They may introduce it soon as they think they are western country
Frankfurt, Munich, Hamburg - I heard no issues now, if u have valid i 797 - waiting forr some comments
Amsterdam/Schiphol - No issue without valid stamp
London - ?????
Seoul - ?????
Singapore - ??????
Bangkok - ?????
Kuwait - ?????
Zurich -- ????
Geneva -- ???
God Bless Asian countries :
Singapore - Never heard of transit visa
Bangkok - Never heard of transit visa
Seoul - Never heard of transit visa
Tokyo - They may introduce it soon as they think they are western country
more...
waitin_toolong
08-15 04:38 PM
Please link it.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_3761.html
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_3761.html
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amar123
07-03 11:12 PM
Do you know even to come to site and get some info also need money..
Not to hurt you but just giving one small example of why we need money...
I agree hosting /maintaining a site does take quite a bit of resources, I am not referring to it in this thread. But, I was hoping that IV can make a distinction of what it plans to do for the lawsuit from what AILF does. As I had mentioned, this would make it only more meaningful for IV members to contribute :)
I am not hurt, like I said I appreciate the effort you guys are putting in.
Also, I added another dig on the USCIS scandal:
http://digg.com/politics/USCIS_Visa_scandal (http://digg.com/politics/USCIS_Visa_scandal)
Guys, digging is free, and if we can get it to 1000 digs, I am sure people will begin to notice if it is sensational news.
Not to hurt you but just giving one small example of why we need money...
I agree hosting /maintaining a site does take quite a bit of resources, I am not referring to it in this thread. But, I was hoping that IV can make a distinction of what it plans to do for the lawsuit from what AILF does. As I had mentioned, this would make it only more meaningful for IV members to contribute :)
I am not hurt, like I said I appreciate the effort you guys are putting in.
Also, I added another dig on the USCIS scandal:
http://digg.com/politics/USCIS_Visa_scandal (http://digg.com/politics/USCIS_Visa_scandal)
Guys, digging is free, and if we can get it to 1000 digs, I am sure people will begin to notice if it is sensational news.
more...
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rajuseattle
07-14 07:14 PM
ajthakur,
U r covered under AC-21 if I-140 is not revoked by your previous employer.
Be truthful to USCIS and using a very good attorney firm drat AC-21 and Employment verification letter to USCIS. Since your PD is current chances are after reviewing the new employment letter USCIS might approve your case.
Please dont waste time in on this forum, instead spend some money to consult Rajeev Khanna or Sheela Murthy, it is worth spending every penny on the advice and their services for invoking AC-21.
Per your RFE notice it looks like, USCIS is only interested in verifying your current employment in the similar profession. good employment verification letter and AC-21 draft is good to save your GC.
RFE might have triggered due to previous H1B transfer, it has nothing to do with your employer revoking I-140. Trust me lot of desi consulting companies dont want to take any "Panga" with USCIS and 99% of the time they just ignore employees leaving them. So dont worry, dial in Murthy or Khanna consulting services and see what's their take on your case. If you are getting any help from new Employer's attorney that will be free of cost to you.
Bottomline you need a competent attorney for answering this RFE and invoking AC-21.
U r covered under AC-21 if I-140 is not revoked by your previous employer.
Be truthful to USCIS and using a very good attorney firm drat AC-21 and Employment verification letter to USCIS. Since your PD is current chances are after reviewing the new employment letter USCIS might approve your case.
Please dont waste time in on this forum, instead spend some money to consult Rajeev Khanna or Sheela Murthy, it is worth spending every penny on the advice and their services for invoking AC-21.
Per your RFE notice it looks like, USCIS is only interested in verifying your current employment in the similar profession. good employment verification letter and AC-21 draft is good to save your GC.
RFE might have triggered due to previous H1B transfer, it has nothing to do with your employer revoking I-140. Trust me lot of desi consulting companies dont want to take any "Panga" with USCIS and 99% of the time they just ignore employees leaving them. So dont worry, dial in Murthy or Khanna consulting services and see what's their take on your case. If you are getting any help from new Employer's attorney that will be free of cost to you.
Bottomline you need a competent attorney for answering this RFE and invoking AC-21.
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h1techSlave
04-07 04:45 PM
Congrats buddy!
Finally just received THAT email. "Current Status: Card production ordered"
PD Sep 2001
EB3 India.
Finally just received THAT email. "Current Status: Card production ordered"
PD Sep 2001
EB3 India.
more...
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needhelp!
09-18 11:47 PM
I agree,I was a bit annoyed when the congressman started talking about the illegals.. it was totally not related to us.
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eager_immi
01-18 12:13 PM
Please email a core member directly and get some chinese people to create a updated chinese version of the same website.
Thanks IV core group. Signed up for $20/month. Please continue your efforts.
I am from Chinese community and registered IV just a couple of week ago. There was no email message to me regarding this movement, and some other registerd users may encounter the same situation. You may need to resend them. Only when I opened IV website yesterday did I know this recurring program and current situation. I am assuming IV is the only group who are pushing to get the I-485 relief for high skilled workers with advanced degree. There are MANY MANY Chinese in the same situation but I guess there might not have so many Chinese in IV. IV core group may think of some better way to reach more Chinese or other people. Basically, we are on the same boat for the same direction. Better to concentrate all resources to reach one goal. I would suggest IV to setup a seperate Chinese (and Hispanic) contribution page to diverse the culture background of IV members.
Subscription Payment Sent (ID #2PX91085T34540611)
In reference to:S-19881018DS353430X
Thanks IV core group. Signed up for $20/month. Please continue your efforts.
I am from Chinese community and registered IV just a couple of week ago. There was no email message to me regarding this movement, and some other registerd users may encounter the same situation. You may need to resend them. Only when I opened IV website yesterday did I know this recurring program and current situation. I am assuming IV is the only group who are pushing to get the I-485 relief for high skilled workers with advanced degree. There are MANY MANY Chinese in the same situation but I guess there might not have so many Chinese in IV. IV core group may think of some better way to reach more Chinese or other people. Basically, we are on the same boat for the same direction. Better to concentrate all resources to reach one goal. I would suggest IV to setup a seperate Chinese (and Hispanic) contribution page to diverse the culture background of IV members.
Subscription Payment Sent (ID #2PX91085T34540611)
In reference to:S-19881018DS353430X
more...
makeup Posted in Favorite Car, Hot
nixstor
07-05 02:17 PM
Oh, you are just mean now!:p
I think there should be a big a** button on the top of this screen that says "donations for immigration causes" or whatever and those who feel they can afford to do it will do it, otherwise making paid membership a requirement will severely cut down on the number of people coming on here. Makes no difference to me, there is tons of forums like this online. This is my favorite so far though.
What difference does the membership of people make if they do not understand the agenda/motive of the organization? May be you are being mean in not understanding the agenda and needs of your favorite organization.
I think there should be a big a** button on the top of this screen that says "donations for immigration causes" or whatever and those who feel they can afford to do it will do it, otherwise making paid membership a requirement will severely cut down on the number of people coming on here. Makes no difference to me, there is tons of forums like this online. This is my favorite so far though.
What difference does the membership of people make if they do not understand the agenda/motive of the organization? May be you are being mean in not understanding the agenda and needs of your favorite organization.
girlfriend discuss babies in hot cars
pappu
12-14 10:54 PM
Except for myself and Rajeev, no one joined the conference call tonight. C'mmon guys, we need some action here. We all ought to participate in these calls. Writing emails, coming and posting I am in is not going to help. We have to take actions here. I will set up a conference call on another day next week and please make sure you all attend.
Thanks,
Varsha
Thank you for organizing the conference call. It is sad to know that only one another member attended the call. All if we do not participate actively in the state chapter activities we will only be hurting our chances for the bill next year. It is every easy to write long posts and several posts on the IV forum about ideas and thoughts but all this does not really help. What helps is the real work -- Meeting lawmakers. Forum is just a tool for us to communicate and share views. Pls all actively take part in chapter activities and attend the next conference call.
Thanks,
Varsha
Thank you for organizing the conference call. It is sad to know that only one another member attended the call. All if we do not participate actively in the state chapter activities we will only be hurting our chances for the bill next year. It is every easy to write long posts and several posts on the IV forum about ideas and thoughts but all this does not really help. What helps is the real work -- Meeting lawmakers. Forum is just a tool for us to communicate and share views. Pls all actively take part in chapter activities and attend the next conference call.
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raydon
12-13 11:33 AM
Don't know whether to rely on the dates in the visa bulletin. My colleague who is EB3 China with a PD of 2004 got his I-485 approved recently. The dates on the visa bulletin show EB3 China to be June 2002. Wonder of wonders, that is the USCIS.
Btw, I shook his hand, hoping that some of his incredible luck would rub off on me. Just kidding - it was to congratulate him on his newly attained freedom.:)
Btw, I shook his hand, hoping that some of his incredible luck would rub off on me. Just kidding - it was to congratulate him on his newly attained freedom.:)
GCanyMinute
08-02 01:56 PM
Hi Guys I'm pretty new in all this and i've been following this discussion and perhaps someone can help me.... here is the question.... Do I have a visa number available ?? If so why am I waiting that long??
here is my story:
i'm EB3 world - got my labor pd is 05/2002, and I concurrent filled I-485/I-140 on 05/2003.... already made 2 fingerprints..... I-140 was approved on 12/2005 (TSC).... i renew my EAD every year since I filled.
if what you guys are saying is correct that in order to accept the I-485 to be filled USCIS need to have a visa number available to the applicant.... y am I still waiting?? :confused:
thanks for the help and i'm sorry in advance for my lack of knowledge :)
here is my story:
i'm EB3 world - got my labor pd is 05/2002, and I concurrent filled I-485/I-140 on 05/2003.... already made 2 fingerprints..... I-140 was approved on 12/2005 (TSC).... i renew my EAD every year since I filled.
if what you guys are saying is correct that in order to accept the I-485 to be filled USCIS need to have a visa number available to the applicant.... y am I still waiting?? :confused:
thanks for the help and i'm sorry in advance for my lack of knowledge :)
kumar1
12-15 12:19 PM
Chandu-I agree to most of what you say.
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