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  • Blog Feeds
    10-28 12:00 AM
    AILA Leadership Has Just Posted the Following:


    https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi13QODncM09L2xuHHfHoN2jc_foXJzOxWFlhoCk7fQ6ZHz-sgsDyuaL_UcVKqmrG12f8woIoEtIcgxhjIowLSRMmXDX_BC5EHywLXHNI0uWbJR-9UZpgtENoQO_XdLrXXVKa99xV7HxiI/s320/Immigration+Lines.jpg (https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi13QODncM09L2xuHHfHoN2jc_foXJzOxWFlhoCk7fQ6ZHz-sgsDyuaL_UcVKqmrG12f8woIoEtIcgxhjIowLSRMmXDX_BC5EHywLXHNI0uWbJR-9UZpgtENoQO_XdLrXXVKa99xV7HxiI/s1600-h/Immigration+Lines.jpg) I had a very upset client contact me this last week. He was angry . . . at the Visa Bulletin. He could not understand how, after the start of the new fiscal year, there was essentially no movement in the visa numbers. I tried to calm him by telling him that he just needed to be patient. Then I realized how patronizing that sounded. How much longer did he need to wait? He has an approved immigrant visa petition (EB-3) with an early 2005 priority date in the worldwide category. So, I decided to try to figure out when he might actually get his green card. I ask that you bear with me through this process. This is a LONG post, but one I think you will appreciate reading.



    I have to warn you now, this math is a shot in the dark. I do NOT have all of the numbers of pending and approved cases in each category of employment based immigration. However, some estimate, based upon some pretty good numbers, is better than mere guesswork. Let me walk you through this analysis.



    However, I first ask you to forgive me in advance, math is the reason I went to law school. Also, the USCIS simply has not released clear numbers (possibly for fear of letting folks know exactly how long their wait will actually be).



    My focus for this analysis will be in the EB-2 and Eb-3 categories, since it is in those categories that our clients are most interested. There are four basic numbers we are looking for, NONE of them are easy to find. Let's discover the basic numbers we will be using:

    First, how many approved I-140 cases are awaiting a visa number? According to AILA's recent liaison meeting with DOS, there are 198,186 "case ready" I-140 petitions awaiting visa issuance, in the EB-2 (52,584), EB-3 (139,737) and EW (5,865) categories. Case ready means (as best as we understand), that as soon as the petition is current, the Adjustment will be approved or consular processing will begin. Obviously, the EB-2 numbers are only for India and China.



    Second, how many pending I-140 cases are there at the Service Centers awaiting adjudication? According to the June 2009, USCIS Production Update Report to Congress (http://www.uscis.gov/files/article/fy09q1backlog.pdf), USCIS had 85,970 pending I-140 cases awaiting adjudication. Unfortunately, USCIS does not break out the I-140 cases in this report between EB-2 and EB-3. These are the most recent numbers I could find.



    Third, how many pending I-140 cases are at the District Offices? I have no idea! I cannot locate anywhere the numbers of cases at the local USCIS offices. No one knows. Really. There is no report that I can find where this number has been released. And, frankly, I do not believe that USCIS has an accurate count on this either (I do pray they get such a count soon).

    Fourth, how many pending labor certifications are there at the DOL? This number is actually pretty sure. There are 62,100 pending labor certifications as of the September 22 stakeholder meeting with DOL (http://aila.org/Content/default.aspx?docid=30235) (not counting pending appeals). Unfortunately, again, we do not know which of the categories (EB-2 or EB-3) the cases will fall under.



    Now, it is time for the math. Assuming all pending Labor Certifications and pending I-140s are approved (yes, I know some will be denied and some are duplicates), there are at least a total of 346,256 individuals with approved or soon to be approved petitions awaiting green cards, not including their families. If we assume an average family size of 4 people (I believe this is a safe assumption), there are 1,385,024 people waiting on employment based green cards in the EB-2 and EB-3 categories.



    I know the number is huge! And next we have to try to fit that number into the two separate EB categories. Unfortunately, we have two problems in doing this. The first problem we have is that we do not know how many of these I-140 cases are in the EB-2, or EB-3 categories. So, let's use a little deductive reasoning here. Using experience and best guessing based upon the division we already know about in the numbers of cases from the DOS, lets say 26% are EB-2 (360,162), and 74% are EB-3 (1,024,917).



    The second problem is that we do not have a per country breakdown. (I hope the USCIS has that breakdown). How to account for this? Again, let's estimate based upon the DOS numbers, that India accounts for 70% of the EB-2 and 39% of the EB-3 numbers and that China accounts for 30% of the EB-2 and only 3% of the EB-3 numbers and the rest of the world accounts for 58% of the EB-3 numbers.

    We also know the maximum numbers available in any given year for all family and employment based categories is 25,630 (with some caveats), and that there are only a total of 80,000 employment based immigrant visas in the EB-2 and EB-3 categories combined (with some flow down from other categories).



    You can see we have leaped, jumped, guessed, and assumed our way to the follow conclusions:



    India EB-3 wait for permanent residence for a labor certification filed today: 15.8 years. This generous estimate comes from the fact that an estimated 399,717 Indian Nationals waiting for 25,630 visas a year. This estimate completely ignores the possible immigration of any family based immigrants which would subtract from this total and increase the wait time, and the number that would flow down from other immigrant visa categories, so the wait time is probably longer.

    China EB-2 wait for permanent residence for a labor certification (or NIW) filed today: 4.1 years. This estimate comes from the estimated 108,048 Chinese Nationals waiting for 25,630 visas a year. This estimate completely ignores the possible immigration of any family based immigrants that would subtract from this total and increase the wait time, and the number that would flow down from other immigrant visa categories.

    Worldwide EB-3 wait for permanent residence for a labor certification filed today: Well, there are 594,451 people waiting in this queue. The limiting factor here will be the 80,000 annual limit on employment based immigration. Excluding per country limits and flow down from other employment based immigrant visa categories, this is at least a 8.1 year wait.

    And these waits are from when the person STARTS the green card, not when they come into the United States.




    I can now tell my client a waiting date based upon, at least, some real numbers. But, I will still be wrong. The dates are not accurate, but at least it is not made up out of whole cloth. But we now all understand that we cannot look at the Visa Bulletin and actually determine how long the wait is.

    The point of this whole exercise, besides telling my client how long he still might have to wait, is to point out the consequences of these numbers.



    Line? What Line? These are employment based immigrants. Every single one has a job offer, an employer, and a certification that either there are no qualified, willing and able US workers for the job, or that the individual is so good, we do not even have to test the labor market. We need these people. We want these people. How many do you think will now just give up and go home?



    This delay in legal, employment based immigration is a crisis for America. If you are an intending immigrant, and your immigration option is employment based, do you have the patience the wait 15 years for your green card? Can you do better in Australia, Canada, or even back home in your home country? What is the cost to our future competitiveness of a broken legal immigration system? What is the cost to U.S. innovation?

    I believe these numbers have a purpose. The purpose is immigration reform, and not just a legalization. We all know that a broken legal immigration system causes illegal immigration. We need to fix the legal immigration system now! We need to modify the process, significantly shorten the wait and increase the numbers to meet the demand. We need to not include family members in the total calculated visa numbers. And, Yes, we need to make these change even in a struggling economy. We must maintain the great benefits that positive, focused employment based immigration has delivered to America. The reality is that Congress must act to help save the future of American innovation and economic growth. And, they must do it now.
    https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/186823568153827945-159310338954847679?l=ailaleadership.blogspot.com


    More... (http://ailaleadership.blogspot.com/2009/10/get-in-line-what-line-tragic-tale-of.html)





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  • makemygc
    08-16 09:46 AM
    US Date format on your AP would create some confusion in Immigration officer at Airport in India while coming back to USA..

    On Bombay air port, I struggled for 5 minutes on AP date..US dates are MMDDYY format while India have DDMMYY...Our AP date was 9/7/2005 (Sep 7 2005) & we were travelling back to US on Aug 2, 2005 (India format 2/8/2005)...Immigration officer told us that WE Cant travel because our AP was expirered on Jul 9, 2007..I told him that USA dates are in MMDDYY format but he did not listened..then he called his Supervisor, his boss looked at our AP & he also said WE cant travel....Then I "politely" argued that dates in USA are MMDDYY format & my AP is valid...Somehow, his colleague on next counter was listening our converastion with him (& his Boss) and told our IO that I am right and my AP was valid....some how he was convinced by his colleguae and we were let go...

    All of our family were tense...so take care of AP date format...

    This is really funny and serious at the same time. MM/DD and DD/MM is not a problem with the India officers but with the US officers too. I had the similar problem when I went to get my driving license first time and was carrying the passport. Guy at the DMV was suspicious about my birth date since he was reading it incorrectly on my passport. I had my anxious moment that day.





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  • reachinus
    09-26 01:52 PM
    I think you are already late. You should have done all you can, like meeting the senator, writing to uscis, infopass appt, as soon as you PD was current. Now the Visa numbers are over for the FY 2010. You may get lucky in October when new visa number are available. Hope this helps.


    Hello,

    The 485 applications for me and wife are still being processed by USCIS in Los Angeles. My priority date (August 1, 2005) became current almost 3 months ago.

    We have waited patiently since the priority date became current. There has been no movement except that they wanted to fingerprint us again, which we completed 2 months ago. My lawyer says he put in two referral inquiries but of no avail.

    I have already obtained InfoPass for a couple of weeks from now. I will go and check in with the USCIS office here in LA.

    1. What should my next steps be? Write to my senator? Or should I wait until after the InfoPass appointment
    2. Am I pushing too hard on USCIS? Is it that they are simply backlogged? Should I just wait more?

    I am concerned that the dates will retrogress again. Any advice or comments will be helpful.

    Thanks,
    SR





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  • grupak
    08-15 02:06 PM
    What is ur PD, ND, RD and Service Center?
    I had these in another thread but roughly
    PD May 2006
    RD 8/2/2007
    ND 9/27/2007

    TSC. Got the CPO email on 8/7/08. Then welcome email 8/8/08, approval notice 8/12/08. Received approval notice yesterday, cards this morning. Great start to a weekend.

    Good luck to all!!



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  • latejunefiler
    07-12 09:28 AM
    Singhsa,

    Thats a great poem!!
    I have made some aesthetic changes to your document and uploaded here.

    http://www.geocities.com/latejunefiler/Ghandhigiri.pdf





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  • grupak
    08-15 02:08 PM
    Congrats on your green. You have done so much for IV and community and it is great to know that your levels of commitment is still the same

    Thanks. I need to figure out how to start a google group first I guess :)

    IV members from Jackson MS, we need you since you are in the state Capitol.



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  • GCwaitforever
    05-24 09:26 AM
    Great job guys. So far this has been the big event with our direct participation and which grabbed headline news. I hope with this coverage, the Senators turn their heads towards legal immigration. Kudos to Aman, Tracy Hong, Shilpa and other core team members who are sacrificing their time and money by representing IV.





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  • abhaykul
    12-31 01:03 PM
    Has IV explored or conveyed DOS about considering the First Arrival date on H1B or the first day on H1B job after graduating to be the priority date ? If DOS can implement this without change in law ?

    The Ideal Scenario would be First Arrival Date or Labor Filing Date which ever comes first should be the priority date after I 140 is approved. What do you think IV core?

    If DOS implements this it will be a boon for long time GC hopefuls !



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  • skd
    06-03 02:48 AM
    This came up to my mind : In senate there was voting on whether to bring immigration bill or not on to table , voting is around 60+ - 30+ , now these 30+ are sure they are going to reject it atleast with 90% confidence. we need to target the remaining 60 more compared to 30 who are already against to senate bill. This is very imp i dont know how to gather those details any help please ?
    I agree with bigboy007 that we should only focus on INTRESTED senators/congressman





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  • Skip
    March 9th, 2004, 12:34 PM
    SB-26 will be a problem. You cannot use TTL flash mode with any Nikon digital camera. It would be like going back to an old thyristor auto flash. Only the DX series flashes work with the digitals.



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  • naturopathicpt
    06-25 10:15 PM
    Hi. I came from the Philippines and signed a contract for a 3-year obligation as a PT here in the US. My employer paid my recruiter (agency) fees to get me here. In the whole process, I did not shell out anything except for my airfare and other minor fees. However, my recruiter made this written contract saying that if I breach it, I have to pay all the expenses, as in literally all of it regardless of how long I already worked within the three-year period. I just feel that I am being held by my employer since I am planning to move to another company that would better give me the chance to have a green card to a place where I really like to live. Is it really legal that a recruiter make a copy of a contract/bond for the employer and the recruit to sign on it and for me to be responsible to pay all of the fees should I breach the contract? Is there any law/article that prohibits this practice?

    I highly appreciate your warm assistance.

    NaturopathicPT





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  • PD_Dec2002
    08-08 07:53 PM
    My H1 has been denied on Master's quota as I filed for H1 in April and I graduated in May. The reason for denial is that "on notice day, I was not graduate'.

    My EAD will be expiring in May 2008 and even If I apply for New H1 in next April, I can not start working till October 2008.

    In this bad situation, what are the option I have not to leave the country. Please advise as soon as possible

    You can go to school again though it might not be practical. Or go back to your country and ask the employer to sponsor your H-1B so you can reenter in October 2008.

    Also, check with other lawyers.

    Thanks,
    Jayant



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  • letstalklc
    11-24 03:41 PM
    Go for SBI Global link ... best exchange rate and cheapest. They take 4 business days though. I never had any problem sending to any bank in India through SBI Global link. You (or your parents) do nto need an SBI Account to use this

    Yes, as I said that SBI is the best compare to others, I am using their service from past 3 years, I have no issues so far....evry time they are accurate with exchange rate....yes no cheating at all, I have used ICICI before, but most of the time they are not reliable....





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  • svr_76
    06-12 12:50 PM
    I agree....but still think that however logical it seems it hard for ppl to follow it. I still think this fearmongering is so deep rooted that a majority of folks will just flood CIS with inquries and senator letters ets.. (the reason being...the other person is doing it and i dont want to be left behind) Same like the "Run to the Bank" ...

    that eventually. .the CIS will resort to the best option they have....

    They will start issueing RFE for majority of cases... thus pushing processing by 60 days (remember no SR for 60 days after RFE reson received).



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  • maximus777
    09-10 03:05 PM
    Which EB category are you shooting for?





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  • sunflowershower
    12-03 12:50 PM
    Hi,

    I'm currently under AOS, I had H4 visa under my father (H1B visa) but since I just recently turned 22 my H4 visa expired. My family and I apply for Green Card (with I485 hand in) in July 2007. The problem is, I just recently got accepted in to UK Graduate school (lse) and I would love to go. It's an one-year program, but I think I would need to spend 1 and half year in UK. Is there any way that would allow me to just study aboard for 1.5-2 years in UK without jeopardizing my I485? or worse my parents' I485? What application/document should I file? :confused:

    PS. I'm not sure if this information is any helpful but I am also a master's student in US. But my advisor said I can take one year off to UK and finish my US masters when I get back. Also, I'm a canadian citizen

    Would really appreciate any help,

    I asked my family immigration lawyer but she is completely clueless as to what I need to do.



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  • Sree1965
    05-22 04:48 PM
    New filings will not effect to move the dates either you file on 1st or 30th. The Visa(GC) numbers will be deducted only after the approval of I-485. Any of these new filings will not be touched(Approved) for 4-5 months. USCIS has to consume the balance visas(GCs) before October 1st 2007.

    If The Number of Visas > The number of Approved + To be approved(Mostly filed at least 4-5 months before) in the coming months.....then you can expect further movement from the State Department..

    Ask(Pray) the USCIS(God) not to approve any 485's till June 15th....

    So...the move movement is not depended even all of them file on the day 1....It depended on the Number of approvals .....Keep watching the approvals atleast till June 10th ...

    Sree



    I also think this is a good idea, 10 days will not make much difference. Please help other members people.... Who knows, if there are too many applications USCIS might decide to not move dates in the July Visa Bulletin.





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  • Michigan123
    07-24 10:28 AM
    usabal has put LNU .
    Given Name in passport - ABC XYZ
    surname -

    All GC related document's name
    ABC XYZ ,LNU

    so bottom line is that Given name becomes first name and LNU relplaces surname (last name)

    I do not know if it is correct but this is the way they have filed for me.

    It is very interesting SSN has ABC XYZ
    485 has ABC XYZ,LNU (LNU,ABC XYZ)
    H1 has FNU ,ABC XYZ
    EAD has LNU,ABC XYZ

    -What a mess


    -Ali





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  • shishya
    09-02 11:13 AM
    When i called last time when my wife EAD got approved, they told me the address on the application. So they should know.

    Did you get Soft LUD after you filed change of address? If yes, then it's probably updated.

    I did not get any soft LUD. Will all the updates happening, folks getting second FP, I wanted to make sure my case is not getting delayed due to some mistake either on their or my part. If nothing else, upon changing the address using online means, USCIS should have sent me a notice in mail at my new address to confirm the change, which I did not get. Hence the query.





    senthiltamil
    09-22 08:54 PM
    Mine is in TSC.

    Thanks





    gunabcd
    07-17 04:48 PM
    I am ashamed to read these comments coming from "highly skilled" people. Administrators please take preventive steps. We dont want some sickos malign IV. :mad: :mad:

    Come on guys, we are in US not in Saudi Arabia. Such comments are made in US senate also. It's not illegal to say something like that. It was a good joke. With all due respect let me ask you, are "Highly skilled" not human being?

    Still I agree that such comments should not be made, because it could become a norm, and someone someday could really cross the boundry, which could create a problem for IV.



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